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Oil prices were broadly unchanged on Thursday, trimming earlier losses as investors remained unconvinced that ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran will quickly lead to a resolution of the conflict that has constrained supply from the Middle East.

Brent crude futures fell 26 cents to $94.67 per barrel by 06:11 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude edged up 14 cents to $91.43 per barrel. Both benchmarks ended the previous session near flat levels, although trading was marked by significant intraday swings.

The conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran has triggered major disruptions to global oil and gas supply, largely due to Iran restricting movement through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical corridor that typically handles around 20% of worldwide oil and LNG shipments.

“While there are hopes for de-escalation, many investors remain sceptical, given that U.S.-Iran talks have repeatedly broken down even after appearing to make progress,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.

“Until a peace deal is reached and free navigation through the strait is restored, WTI prices are expected to continue fluctuating between $80 and $100,” he added.

ING analysts estimate that approximately 13 million barrels per day of oil flows have been impacted by the disruption, even after factoring in alternative pipeline routes and limited tanker movements through the strait. They warned that the situation could deteriorate further following Washington’s decision to impose a blockade on Iranian ports after negotiations collapsed over the weekend.

“The physical market is becoming tighter every day that passes without a restart of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz,” the ING analysts said.

A source with knowledge of discussions in Tehran told Reuters that Iran may consider allowing vessels to pass via the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz if an agreement is reached to prevent renewed hostilities after the two-week ceasefire that began on April 8.

Officials from both the U.S. and Iran are reportedly considering returning to Pakistan for additional talks as early as this weekend. Pakistan’s army chief arrived in Tehran on Wednesday to help mediate and avoid a fresh escalation.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that Washington will not extend waivers that previously allowed certain purchases of Iranian and Russian crude without triggering sanctions.

Highlighting the strain in global supply, U.S. government data showed declines in crude, gasoline and distillate inventories last week, as reduced imports and increased exports reflected efforts to compensate for disrupted flows.

Gold prices climbed during Asian trading on Thursday, supported by an extended decline in the U.S. dollar, while investors continued to watch for developments around potential ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran.

The metal hovered close to a one-month peak reached in the previous session, as expectations of easing tensions in the Iran conflict lifted market sentiment and reduced concerns about stubborn inflation pressures.

Spot gold rose 0.9% to $4,835.09 per ounce, while gold futures added 0.7% to $4,857.05 per ounce as of 01:21 ET (05:21 GMT).

Other precious metals also moved higher. Silver gained 2.4% to $80.8165 per ounce, and platinum advanced 1.6% to $2,147.21 per ounce, with both trading near recent monthly highs.

Dollar slide underpins metals; Iran developments in spotlight

Gold and other metals were supported by continued dollar weakness, as improving risk appetite reduced demand for the U.S. currency as a safe haven.

The dollar fell to a six-week low on Thursday, weighed down in part by softer producer inflation data released earlier in the week.

U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that further discussions with Iran could take place in the coming days and suggested that an end to the Middle East conflict may be within reach. He also said that separate talks between Israel and Lebanon are scheduled in Washington.

However, these remarks came alongside reports of increased U.S. troop deployments in the region and the full rollout of a naval blockade targeting Iran.

Even so, the ceasefire between the two sides appeared to be holding.

Markets remain focused on the likelihood of further negotiations, particularly with the current ceasefire set to expire on April 21.

Copper supported by solid Chinese growth data

Among industrial metals, copper prices also pushed higher after stronger-than-expected economic data from China, the world’s largest importer.

Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.5% to $13,350.33 per tonne, while COMEX copper futures gained 0.8% to $6.1250 per pound.

Data released Thursday showed China’s economy expanded 5% year on year in the first quarter, exceeding expectations and pointing to a strong start to 2026.

The expansion was largely driven by exports, as global demand for Chinese goods remained firm. This trend is expected to continue in the near term, supporting demand for copper.

However, China still faces risks tied to the Iran conflict. Higher energy costs could weigh on domestic consumption, while disruptions to global shipping routes may also impact export activity.

Consumer price growth across the Eurozone picked up more strongly than first reported in March, remaining above the European Central Bank’s 2% target and reflecting the impact of higher energy costs linked to the Iran conflict.

According to Eurostat, annual inflation across the 21 countries using the euro rose to 2.6% over the twelve months to March, exceeding the preliminary estimate of 2.5% and up from 1.9% in February.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 1.3%, slightly above the initial reading of 1.2% and compared with a 0.6% rise in the previous month.

TotalEnergies SE (EU:TTE) said it anticipates a solid uplift in first-quarter earnings, supported by higher oil and gas prices and robust trading activity, even as ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to affect production levels.

The company’s U.S.-listed shares rose around 3% in premarket trading.

Output for the quarter is expected to remain broadly stable compared with the previous period, at approximately 2.55 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. New project startups, including developments in Libya and Brazil, are helping offset around 100,000 barrels per day of lost production linked to the conflict, which has disrupted operations in Qatar, Iraq, and offshore UAE. A refinery complex in Saudi Arabia was also recently shut following damage.

Despite these challenges, the group expects a notable increase in earnings from its exploration and production segment, with stronger hydrocarbon prices contributing an estimated $2 billion to $2.5 billion to working capital during the quarter.

Liquefied natural gas performance is also set to improve significantly compared with the fourth quarter, driven by around 10% growth in output and strong trading conditions amid heightened market volatility.

Refining margins in Europe remained firm at $11.40 per ton, comfortably above market expectations, with utilization rates exceeding 90%.

Results from the Integrated Power segment are projected at about $500 million, broadly unchanged year on year, while Marketing and Services are also expected to perform in line with the previous year.

Mark Wilson of Jefferies described the update as a “small positive,” noting that TotalEnergies appears to be managing working capital pressures more effectively than some peers, including Shell and BP.

The analyst added that first-quarter net income could come in roughly 10% above consensus forecasts of €4.8 billion, with LNG trading likely to be the main driver of upside.

TotalEnergies is scheduled to report its full first-quarter results on April 29.

Pernod Ricard SA (EU:RI) has revised its full-year sales expectations downward after reporting minimal growth in the third quarter, with organic net sales rising just 0.1% as declines in the United States and China offset gains in other regions.

The French spirits group now expects organic net sales to fall between 3% and 4% for FY26, pointing to ongoing disruption linked to the Middle East conflict.

Despite the weak backdrop, the result came in slightly ahead of expectations, beating analyst forecasts of a 0.5% decline by 50 basis points, according to RBC Capital Markets, which maintained its “sector perform” rating and €100 price target.

“We can’t see this advancing the investment case, either positively or negatively,” RBC analysts said, noting that the modest outperformance was largely driven by stronger-than-expected results in Asia.

Reported net sales for the third quarter totalled €1.95 billion, down 14.6% year on year, impacted by a €175 million foreign exchange headwind and a €159 million reduction linked to disposals, including its Wines and Imperial Blue businesses.

In the United States, organic sales declined 12% in the quarter and 14% over the year to date, while the broader bottled spirits market fell 4%, with stronger performance in bars and restaurants compared with retail channels.

China also remained weak, with sales down 7% in the quarter and 24% year to date, reflecting lower demand for Martell cognac and Scotch whisky. However, RBC noted that the quarter benefited from the timing of Chinese New Year.

Excluding the U.S. and China, organic net sales rose 5% in the third quarter. India delivered the strongest growth, up 11% in Q3 and 6% year to date, supported by premiumisation trends and demand for imported spirits. Canada recorded double-digit growth driven by ready-to-drink products and Jameson, while Brazil returned to growth after disruption caused by a methanol crisis.

Europe posted modest growth of 1%, led by brands such as Bumbu and Perrier-Jouët. Global Travel Retail increased 11% in the quarter, helped by the resumption of Cognac sales in Chinese duty-free channels, although the company now expects the segment to decline slightly for the full year due to travel disruption in the Middle East.

By category, ready-to-drink products led performance with organic growth of 26% in Q3 and 16% year to date. Strategic International Brands grew 2% in the quarter but remain down 5% year to date, while Specialty Brands declined 9% in Q3 and 8% over the same period.

For the nine months to March, reported net sales fell 14.8% to €7.20 billion, with foreign exchange movements reducing revenue by €515 million, mainly due to weakness in the U.S. dollar, Indian rupee, and Turkish lira.

RBC added that the company’s full-year margin outlook remains unchanged but lacks clarity, with no update on previously referenced discussions with Brown-Forman.

Pernod Ricard said it now expects strategic investments to come in below €700 million for FY26 and confirmed an interim dividend of €2.35 per share, payable on July 24.

Kering (EU:KER) has outlined plans to significantly improve profitability, with chief executive Luca de Meo committing to more than double the group’s operating profit margin as part of a broader turnaround effort aimed at restoring both financial performance and brand strength.

Despite the announcement, shares slipped nearly 2% in early trading in Paris.

The group is targeting a substantial uplift from last year’s 11% recurring operating margin, bringing it closer to industry peers. Kering said it expects to complete a structural reset by the end of this year, with a return to sustainable growth anticipated by the end of 2028.

De Meo, who took the helm in September after a career in the automotive sector, presented the strategy during a capital markets day, addressing ongoing challenges linked to softer demand for luxury goods.

Gucci, the group’s flagship brand, has been particularly affected and is undergoing a repositioning under new management and creative leadership.

“The House is reshaping its product architecture across categories – from a strengthened leather goods offer to more coherent ready to wear, shoes and jewelry – supported by higher quality standards,” the company said.

Earlier in the week, Kering reported an 8% decline in Gucci sales for the first quarter, partly reflecting the impact of the Iran conflict on Middle Eastern demand and international tourism. Retail sales in the region fell 11% overall, despite stronger trading earlier in the quarter before tensions escalated at the end of February.

On capital allocation, Kering confirmed it plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of around 50% of recurring net income, while aiming to lift return on capital employed above 20% over the medium term.

The group also signalled a cautious stance on acquisitions, saying it will adopt a highly selective approach, prioritising product quality and supply chain resilience.

Chiara Battistini of JPMorgan noted that the update offered limited near-term detail, stating it was “light on near-term quantified guidance, with no explicit revenue or margin targets for FY26 or FY27.”

“The three-phase sequencing, with the structural reset not completing until year-end 2026, sustainable growth only materialising by year-end 2028, and leadership “reclaimed” by 2030, suggests that the turnaround will take considerably longer, back end loaded, and require significantly more heavy lifting, than the bulls would hope for,” she added.