Author: Fiona Craig

Invinity Energy Systems plc (LSE:IES) has broken ground on the LoDES site in East Sussex, initiating construction of what will become Europe’s largest operational vanadium flow battery. The project combines a 20.7 MWh flow battery system with a 3 MWp solar array and is backed by a £10 million grant from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. Once online—expected in the second half of 2026—the asset will strengthen grid flexibility, support renewable integration, and serve as a high-visibility showcase for Invinity’s technology.

By taking ownership of the solar asset, the company aims to optimize operational control and capture a greater share of project economics, aligning with the UK’s broader clean-energy ambitions and reducing dependence on gas-fired generation. Despite this strategic progress, Invinity’s near-term outlook remains clouded by weak financial performance, declining revenue trends, and ongoing losses. Market signals and valuation metrics also point to a cautious stance as the company works to overcome operational and financial hurdles.

More about Invinity Energy Systems

Invinity Energy Systems plc manufactures large-scale vanadium flow batteries built for long-duration, high-cycle energy storage. Designed to operate continuously for more than 30 years with no capacity fade, these systems are well suited for renewable integration, grid support, and high-throughput industrial uses. Formed in 2020 through the merger of redT energy plc and Avalon Battery Corporation, the company serves multiple global energy markets, including the UK, North America, and China.

Manolete Partners Plc (LSE:MANO) posted weaker results for the first half of FY26, with revenue slipping 12% and EBIT reduced sharply following fair-value write-downs tied to the truck cartel litigation. Even so, the company completed a record number of cases during the period and reported rising volumes of new referrals—both viewed as positive indicators for the remainder of the year.

Management expects a stronger second half, supported by higher anticipated settlement values and continued momentum in case referrals. The firm cites a robust UK insolvency environment and elevated liquidation activity as key drivers. While the company benefits from a solid balance sheet and minimal leverage, challenges remain: cash generation has been uneven, profitability is under pressure, and shares continue to trade at a demanding valuation amid bearish technical signals.

More about Manolete Partners Plc

Manolete Partners Plc is one of the UK’s leading insolvency litigation funders, working alongside insolvency practitioners to pursue claims against directors or other parties following corporate insolvencies. Its financing model helps unlock recoveries for insolvent estates—an essential function for creditors, including HMRC, seeking to reclaim unpaid liabilities.

U.K. equities retreated on Tuesday, tracking the deeper downturn across European markets, while the pound eased against the U.S. dollar. Among the session’s major movers, ICG surged on strong financial results, whereas WPP declined after fresh deal speculation was dismissed.

By 11:10 GMT, the FTSE 100 had fallen 1.2%, and sterling edged 0.1% lower against the dollar to 1.31. The broader European landscape was similarly soft, with Germany’s DAX slipping 1.2% and France’s CAC 40 losing 1.3%.

U.K. Market Highlights

• Imperial Brands (LSE:IMB)
  The tobacco company said reported earnings per share fell 16.5% to 251.1 pence for the year ended September 30, pressured by higher tax charges and costs related to its 2030 strategic plan. Adjusted EPS, however, climbed 9.1% as profit rose and the share count declined. Reported revenue dipped 0.7% to £32.17 billion due to weaker tobacco volumes and currency headwinds.
• ICG (LSE:ICG)
  Shares advanced sharply after the alternative asset manager posted first-half fiscal 2026 results that beat expectations on all major metrics. The firm also announced a decade-long global distribution agreement with Amundi. Fund Management Company pre-tax profit came in at £325 million—23% ahead of consensus—while total fundraising reached $9 billion, well above forecasts of $5.4 billion.
• WPP (LSE:WPP)
  WPP shares moved lower after the Havas Group publicly dismissed media stories claiming there were merger or investment discussions taking place between the two advertising giants. Reports from outlets including The Times had suggested Havas and private-equity firms such as Apollo Global Management and KKR had looked at potential deals involving WPP.
• Diploma (LSE:DPLM)
  The specialist distributor posted another strong year, with revenue rising to £1.52 billion from £1.36 billion. Organic growth accelerated to 11% from 6% the prior year. Adjusted operating profit increased to £342.7 million from £285 million, while statutory operating profit also improved substantially.
• Greencore (LSE:GNC)
  Greencore reported FY2025 results showing revenue up 7.7% to £1.95 billion and a 28.9% jump in adjusted operating profit to £125.7 million. EBITDA rose nearly 18% to £181.2 million, and pre-tax profit climbed 29.3% to £79.5 million.
• Softcat (LSE:SCT)
  The IT services provider delivered a strong start to fiscal 2026, recording double-digit growth in gross profit and underlying operating profit. The company reported strength across a wide range of technology products and customer types.
• Crest Nicholson (LSE:CRST)
  The housebuilder warned its full-year profit will likely land at the lower end of—or slightly below—its prior guidance of £28–38 million. The company pointed to a sluggish housing market and uncertainty surrounding tax policy ahead of the Budget. Completions are expected to total around 1,691 homes for FY2026, near the bottom of guidance.
• TT Electronics (LSE:TTG)
  Swiss group Cicor Technologies submitted a fully revised takeover proposal, adding a 150p-per-share all-cash alternative alongside its share offer. TT Electronics’ board has unanimously recommended the updated bid.
• Bank of England
  The central bank is preparing to relax parts of the U.K.’s ring-fencing regime but will stop short of the broader overhaul sought by major lenders. Ring-fencing rules require banks with more than £35 billion in retail deposits to separate their consumer operations from riskier activities, affecting Lloyds, NatWest, HSBC, Barclays and Santander UK.

FirstGroup PLC (LSE:FGP) saw its shares plunge on Tuesday after the transport operator revealed a drop in bus passenger volumes, overshadowing what was otherwise a solid earnings performance for the first half of fiscal 2026.

The company reported that adjusted earnings per share rose 16% to 9.9p, but the stock still sank 14.2% as markets reacted to softer demand and a notable free cash outflow.

Adjusted revenue climbed 30% to £833.6 million, largely reflecting the contribution from First Bus London, which was acquired in February 2025. Adjusted operating profit inched up to £103.6 million.

Passenger trends, however, disappointed investors. Commercial bus ridership slid 7%, partially offset by a 4% rise in concessionary travel. FirstGroup attributed the weakness to “the transition to the £3 fare cap, lower consumer confidence and some modal shift to other transport modes.”

Chief Executive Graham Sutherland maintained a positive tone, saying, “We have delivered a robust performance in H1 2026, made further progress in growing and diversifying the business and maintained our positive earnings trajectory.” He added that “In the second half, we will benefit from the actions we have taken to restructure the business.”

The group posted a free cash outflow of £35.6 million prior to acquisitions and shareholder returns, largely tied to accelerated spending on its bus electrification programme. FirstGroup now operates around 1,280 zero-emission buses—roughly 23% of its total fleet.

The company raised its interim dividend to 2.2p per share, up from 1.7p a year earlier, and completed a £50 million share buyback in October 2025. For the full year, FirstGroup continues to expect a modest increase in adjusted EPS and forecasts adjusted net debt to end the year between £125 million and £135 million.

European equity markets retreated on Tuesday, pressured by fading expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut and renewed doubts about the strength of the U.S. economy.

With financial risks building, traders remained cautious ahead of the long-delayed September U.S. jobs report and highly anticipated earnings from Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), both seen as key catalysts for market direction.

The weakness was broad across the region. London’s FTSE 100 slipped 1.3%, while the CAC 40 in Paris and Frankfurt’s DAX each declined 1.5%.

Corporate news added to the mixed sentiment. Shares of Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NOV) dropped following its decision to reduce U.S. pricing for its Wegovy weight-loss injection.

Swiss industrial group ABB (BIT:1ABB) also traded sharply lower even after raising its profitability outlook, suggesting investors were hoping for more aggressive guidance.

French bank Crédit Agricole (EU:ACA) came under pressure as it unveiled its new medium-term strategy, ACT 2028.

Specialist engineering firm Bodycote (LSE:BOY) fell after introducing a revamped divisional reporting structure.

On the upside, Roche Holding (BIT:1RO) rallied after releasing positive Phase III results from its lidERA trial evaluating the oral SERD giredestrant in ER-positive, HER2-negative early breast cancer.

Imperial Brands (LSE:IMB) also advanced, supported by a nearly 5% rise in full-year adjusted operating profit.

U.S. stock futures pointed to additional weakness early Tuesday, suggesting that the market may extend the sharp selloff seen at the start of the week. Persistent pressure on high-growth technology names — especially Nvidia — continued to weigh heavily on sentiment, overshadowing modest gains in defensive sectors.

Futures tied to the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all traded in negative territory, indicating another cautious open as traders reassessed valuations across the market.

Nvidia at the center of renewed volatility

The latest downturn has been driven largely by renewed selling in tech mega-caps. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), once the undisputed engine of the artificial-intelligence boom, slipped further in pre-market trading after Monday’s steep drop. Investors appear increasingly anxious ahead of the company’s highly anticipated quarterly earnings report due after the close on Wednesday.

Because Nvidia has been the market’s key bellwether for AI-related enthusiasm, Wednesday’s results are being treated as a critical test. With analysts and investors questioning whether AI-linked spending can continue at its breakneck pace, any sign of hesitation from the company could have far-reaching effects across the tech sector — and potentially the broader market.

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) CEO Sundar Pichai added fuel to the debate during an interview with the BBC, remarking that there is a degree of “irrationality” in the current AI wave and cautioning that “no company is going to be immune” if the boom deflates. His comments reinforced broader concerns about stretched valuations within the sector.

Government shutdown delays leave investors starved of data

Another factor clouding market visibility has been the temporary blackout of key U.S. economic indicators caused by the recent government shutdown. With official releases delayed for weeks, policymakers and investors have had limited real-time insight into the strength of the labor market and the wider economy.

Some data has now started to resurface. On Monday, the Commerce Department unexpectedly reported a modest increase in August construction spending — a rare bright spot in an otherwise uncertain landscape. Still, the report covers a period long before the shutdown, limiting its usefulness.

The most important piece of delayed data — the September nonfarm payrolls report — is set to be released on Thursday and is widely expected to shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. Markets remain split on whether the Fed will cut rates this year or wait for stronger evidence of cooling economic conditions.

Monday’s selloff highlights growing fragility

Monday’s session was marked by a sharp and broad retreat across risk assets. All three major averages sank to their lowest closing levels in about a month after an early attempt at direction gave way to steady selling throughout the afternoon.

Although the indices staged a mild rebound just before the closing bell, the declines were still notable:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: –557 points (–1.2%)
• Nasdaq Composite: –192 points (–0.8%)
• S&P 500: –62 points (–0.9%)

The slump highlighted growing investor unease about the sustainability of equity valuations — especially in tech — at a time when interest rates remain elevated and economic signals mixed.

Sector breakdown: airlines, banks, housing lead the declines

Several major sectors experienced heavy losses Monday, underscoring the breadth of the downturn:

• Airlines were among the worst performers, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index falling 3.7% to its lowest close in more than three months as fuel costs, slowing travel demand, and recession fears converged.
• Financials struggled as bond-market volatility pressured lenders and brokerages alike. The KBW Bank Index and the NYSE Arca Broker/Dealer Index both posted declines exceeding 2.5%.
• Housing stocks dropped 2.7%, reflecting ongoing softness in the real-estate market as high mortgage rates continue to choke affordability.
• Semiconductors, energy, and networking stocks also pulled back sharply as investors rotated away from cyclical and growth-sensitive areas.
• Utilities, often considered a haven during periods of volatility, were one of the few sectors to show modest strength.

Looking ahead

With Nvidia’s earnings looming and delayed economic data beginning to filter back into the market, traders are preparing for a potentially volatile stretch. The combination of elevated valuations, policy uncertainty, and shifting expectations for AI-driven growth has created a fragile environment where even small surprises can lead to outsized market reactions.

For now, futures suggest the path of least resistance remains to the downside — unless incoming data or Nvidia’s update on Wednesday offers a compelling reason for investors to step back in.

Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) slid below $90,000 on Tuesday, marking its weakest level in almost seven months as growing doubts about a Federal Reserve rate cut and a lack of fresh U.S. economic data pushed traders out of risk-heavy positions.

The token was last down 5.4% at $90,091.5 as of 00:22 ET (05:22 GMT), after briefly dipping to $89,471.4 — a drop of nearly 30% from the late-October high above $126,000. Momentum worsened after Bitcoin broke its $94,000 support and triggered a bearish technical “death cross.”

Concerns over the December Fed meeting dominated sentiment, especially after policymakers, including Chair Jerome Powell, indicated they were not yet ready to ease policy further. The absence of timely U.S. data following the government shutdown has added another layer of uncertainty.

Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and steep declines in crypto-related equities also pressured the market, while the latest wave of forced liquidations in derivatives trading accelerated the downturn. Analytics firms estimate that more than $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions were wiped out in a single day earlier this month.

Bitcoin’s retreat to levels last seen in April underscores how quickly confidence has deteriorated amid geopolitical tensions and shifting expectations for U.S. policy moves.

Altcoins tumbled in tandem: Ethereum dropped 5.6%, XRP lost 4.4%, Solana slipped 4%, Cardano fell 5%, and Polygon retreated 3%. Meme coins also weakened, with Dogecoin down 4% and $TRUMP edging 1% lower.

Oil prices retreated on Tuesday, losing close to 1%, after Russia restored crude loadings at a major export terminal that had been briefly knocked offline by a Ukrainian drone and missile attack. With the immediate disruption resolved, traders shifted their attention back to the broader implications of Western sanctions on Moscow’s energy flows.

By early London trade, Brent crude slipped 0.9% to $63.64 a barrel, while U.S. WTI also fell 0.9% to $59.37.

Loadings at Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed over the weekend following a two-day halt, according to industry sources and LSEG data.

Analyst Tony Sycamore of IG said crude was under pressure “as reports indicate that loadings have resumed sooner than expected at Novorossiysk.”

Exports from Novorossiysk and the adjacent Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal — together equal to roughly 2% of global supply — had been frozen since Friday, sending prices higher during the prior session.

Washington has argued that sanctions rolled out in October targeting Rosneft and Lukoil are already squeezing Russia’s export revenues, with expectations that volumes will fall over time.

ANZ Research added that Russian barrels are now trading at a notable discount to international benchmarks.

Vivek Dhar of Commonwealth Bank of Australia said “market worries centre around the build-up of oil on tankers as buyers assess the risk of potentially breaching sanctions,” but he also noted Russia’s track record of adapting: “We expect any disruption from U.S. sanctions will prove temporary as Russia finds ways to circumvent sanctions once again.”

In the U.S., geopolitical considerations added to market caution. A senior White House official said President Donald Trump would sign new sanctions legislation on Russia provided he keeps final authority over how it is applied. Trump also said Republicans are preparing a bill to penalize any country conducting business with Russia, potentially including Iran.

Forecasts from Goldman Sachs on Monday pointed to weaker oil prices through 2026 due to a wave of additional supply, though the bank said Brent could push above $70 a barrel in 2026–27 if Russian output sees a steeper drop.

Gold prices weakened again on Tuesday during Asian trading hours, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar as investors pulled back from earlier bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. The shift in sentiment, combined with anticipation surrounding this week’s September nonfarm payrolls release, added to headwinds for precious metals.

Spot gold slipped 0.7% to $4,019.19 per ounce, while December futures dropped 1.4% to $4,018.89. The metal has now erased most of last week’s gains.

Rate-Cut Optimism Fades as Focus Turns to Labor Data

The decline came as the market dialed down the likelihood of a December policy easing.
The extended government shutdown delayed a raft of economic reports, leaving traders worried the Fed may be forced to make decisions with incomplete data.

Thursday’s payrolls release is expected to provide the final major reading on hiring conditions before the Fed meets on December 10–11.
Futures markets now show a 42.4% chance of a 25-basis-point trim and a 57.6% probability of rates staying unchanged.

A higher-for-longer rate environment reinforces the appeal of Treasuries, diminishing the relative attractiveness of gold.

Dollar Strength Adds Pressure Across Metals

The U.S. dollar has rebounded sharply in recent days, weighing not only on gold but on the broader metals complex.

Platinum and silver each slipped 0.7%, and LME copper futures lost 0.8%, partially unwinding last week’s strength.

Dollar demand has been buoyed by expectations that U.S. interest rates will remain elevated and by mounting fiscal concerns in major economies — Japan in particular.
A surge in long-term Japanese bond yields sent the yen tumbling and pushed more investors into the greenback.

The U.S. dollar edged lower on Tuesday, pressured by fresh dovish comments from the Federal Reserve as markets braced for a wave of economic releases that could influence policymakers’ final rate decision of 2025.

Around 04:15 ET (09:15 GMT), the Dollar Index eased 0.1% to 99.410, resuming its broader slide after a brief pause at the start of the week.

Waller’s Warning Sends the Dollar Lower

The greenback lost momentum after Fed Governor Christopher Waller highlighted signs of stress emerging in the labor market and renewed his call for another quarter-point rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting.

“Four to six weeks ago, we were still in this kind of no-hire, no-fire mode,” Waller said in London. He noted that executives are increasingly saying “they’re starting to talk about layoffs. They’re starting to plan for them.”
He added: “It could be AI-related. It could be a lot of other things … It’s not just going to be ’no hire, no fire.’ At some point this is going to start happening.”

His comments contrasted with more cautious tones from other Fed officials, leaving markets unsure about the committee’s next step.

With the federal government reopened, a backlog of important indicators will be released this week, including Thursday’s September nonfarm payrolls.

ING analysts wrote: “Our base case remains that risks are tilted to the downside for the dollar once the U.S. data cycle kicks in, and we expect a December Fed cut to become the market’s base case again.”

Rate-cut odds now hover near 40%, down sharply from last week.

Euro Supported as ING Flags Upside Potential

EUR/USD crept higher to 1.1593, reversing a multi-session decline.

ING maintained an optimistic view, saying “upside risks for EUR/USD persist.”
The bank added: “Our year-end target remains 1.180… positive December seasonality could help smooth the move.”

Sterling slipped slightly to 1.3152 as traders awaited U.K. budget details from Finance Minister Rachel Reeves.

Yen Firms as Japanese Yields Touch Long-Time Highs

USD/JPY dropped 0.2% to 154.96 as the yen strengthened from nine-month lows.
Long-term Japanese government bond yields surged to levels not seen in decades, reflecting concerns that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s expected fiscal package could further expand Japan’s debt load.

Reuters reported that Goushi Kataoka believes a stimulus package worth around $149 billion is needed to support the economy.

Elsewhere, USD/CNY rose 0.1% to 7.1117 while AUD/USD held steady at 0.6493.