Author: Fiona Craig

Oil prices declined in Asian trading on Tuesday, pressured by persistent oversupply worries that overshadowed both optimism about a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown and uncertainty surrounding new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil.

By 07:17 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $63.79 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 27 cents, or 0.5%, to $59.86. Both benchmarks had added roughly 40 cents in the previous session.

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history could end this week after the Senate passed a funding compromise. The measure now heads to the House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson has expressed a desire to approve it by Wednesday.

Although the prospect of the government reopening has broadly lifted market sentiment, crude prices remain capped by growing concerns over global supply gluts.

“As OPEC production increases grind on, global oil balances are acquiring an increasingly bearish hue on the supply side of the ledger with demand still trending lower in conjunction with a slowed economic growth path among major oil-consuming countries,” analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

Earlier this month, OPEC+ agreed to raise December output targets by 137,000 barrels per day, maintaining the same pace as in October and November, while also deciding to pause production hikes during the first quarter of next year.

The sustained rise in OPEC output has reinforced a bearish tone among investors, though attention remains fixed on U.S. sanctions against Russian energy firms. ANZ analysts noted that the latest measures under President Donald Trump’s administration could further disrupt markets.

Sources told Reuters that Lukoil declared force majeure at Iraq’s West Qurna-2 oil field and that Bulgaria was preparing to seize the company’s Burgas refinery, marking the most significant fallout yet from sanctions imposed last month.

Meanwhile, analysts reported that oil stored on ships in Asian waters has doubled in recent weeks, as tighter Western sanctions reduced exports to China and India, while import quota limits curbed Chinese demand. Some refiners in both countries have shifted toward Middle Eastern and alternative suppliers.

One potential challenge to oil’s bearish outlook “is the extent to which China will continue to push Russian supplies into strategic stockpiles and whether India will succumb to Trump’s suggestions that the country defer further purchases from Russia,” Ritterbusch added.

Gold prices advanced in Asian trading on Tuesday, climbing to their highest levels in nearly three weeks as investors sought safety amid uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, interest rates, and the lingering economic effects of the government shutdown. The recent strength of the dollar failed to dent demand for the precious metal, while signs of progress toward ending the shutdown did little to curb buying interest.

Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,142.14 per ounce, while December gold futures gained 0.7% to $4,148.92 per ounce by 23:57 ET (04:57 GMT).

Gold Holds Strong Despite Rising Risk Appetite

Investors continued to favor gold even as risk sentiment improved slightly following progress in Washington, where lawmakers moved closer to resolving the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, now in its 41st day. The U.S. Senate approved a bill late Monday to restore federal funding, which will next be considered by the House of Representatives, where Republicans have signaled support.

The yellow metal has sharply rebounded above the key $4,000 per ounce mark, largely shrugging off pressure from a stronger U.S. currency. Analysts said the resilience of bullion reflects persistent caution about the broader economic and policy outlook.

Other precious metals followed gold higher: spot platinum added 0.7% to $1,587.48 per ounce, while spot silver climbed 0.9% to $50.97 per ounce.

Trade and Economic Jitters Boost Safe-Haven Demand

Analysts at ANZ said gold’s renewed strength was driven by safe-haven buying amid growing uncertainty around U.S. trade tariffs and the overall economic landscape. They pointed to recent developments in Washington, where the Supreme Court questioned the Trump administration’s use of an emergency act to enforce its tariff program — a move that could be ruled unconstitutional.

Trump warned on Monday evening that overturning his tariffs could cost the government more than $2 trillion in refunded duties.

“Whether or not the court rules Trump wrongly imposed tariffs by invoking the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, it is likely that there are other laws he can draw on if needed. In the meantime, the market is likely to face months of uncertainty with a ruling not expected before the end of the year,” ANZ analysts wrote in a note.

Economic data releases have been disrupted by the shutdown, leaving investors with limited visibility on the U.S. outlook. Traders have also been paring back expectations for another Federal Reserve rate cut in December, adding to the cautious tone in global markets.

U.S. stock futures traded slightly lower on Tuesday, as investors monitored developments in Washington after the U.S. Senate approved a bill to end the record-long federal government shutdown. Meanwhile, AI cloud provider CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) lowered its full-year revenue forecast, and SoftBank Group (USOTC:SFTBY) reported quarterly earnings that exceeded expectations.

Futures Weaken as Markets Eye Shutdown Resolution

U.S. stock futures hovered just below the flatline early Tuesday, with traders weighing the potential implications of the Senate’s vote to reopen the government.

By 02:42 ET, Dow futures were little changed, S&P 500 futures slipped 7 points (0.1%), and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 42 points (0.2%).

Major Wall Street indices closed higher on Monday, supported by optimism that lawmakers were nearing an agreement to end the historic government shutdown.

Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted that sentiment around the artificial intelligence sector remains strong, citing “bullish” expectations for upcoming results from major tech players, including Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA).

Still, uncertainty surrounds the path of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, after one central bank official signaled on Monday that the scope for further reductions “is now limited.”

Senate Passes Bill to End Longest U.S. Government Shutdown

The U.S. Senate voted to send a spending bill to the House of Representatives, potentially ending the longest federal shutdown in U.S. history, after eight Democrats crossed party lines to support the measure.

Republicans, who control both chambers of Congress, are expected to continue backing the bill, which has received approval from the Trump administration.

The legislation will extend government funding through January 30, allocate a full year’s funding for the Agriculture Department, the legislative branch, and military construction, and ensure that laid-off federal workers are reinstated.

Some Democrats criticized members of their own party who supported the measure, arguing that any deal should include guarantees to lift deadlines that could impact healthcare coverage for millions of Americans. GOP leaders have pledged to hold a vote on the issue by mid-December.

Democrats have also accused President Donald Trump of using the shutdown to “deny food assistance and disrupt air travel” as a means of forcing negotiations, while administration officials defended the move as part of efforts to “cut spending and maintain aviation safety.”

CoreWeave Cuts Revenue Guidance Amid Data Center Delays

Shares of CoreWeave fell in extended trading after the Nvidia-backed AI cloud services firm reported a delay with a third-party data center partner, prompting a downward revision to its revenue forecast.

The company now expects fiscal 2025 revenue between $5.05 billion and $5.15 billion, down from prior guidance of $5.15 billion to $5.35 billion. Analysts surveyed by LSEG had projected $5.29 billion, according to Reuters.

Despite the guidance cut, CoreWeave reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter revenue of $1.36 billion, reflecting robust demand for AI cloud infrastructure. Adjusted operating income margin slipped to 16% from 21% a year earlier.

CFO Nitin Agrawal said the company plans to increase capital spending to strengthen its AI infrastructure, expecting to invest $12–14 billion in 2025.

“We remain focused on scaling our operations to meet accelerating demand,” Agrawal said, emphasizing the company’s continued partnership with OpenAI and Meta Platforms.

SoftBank Posts Strong Profit, Sells Nvidia Stake

SoftBank Group Corp. reported a sharply higher-than-expected fiscal second-quarter profit, driven by investment gains in its Vision Funds and continued exposure to artificial intelligence.

The Japanese conglomerate posted net profit attributable to shareholders of ¥2.502 trillion ($16.3 billion) for the July–September quarter, far exceeding Bloomberg estimates of ¥418.23 billion and more than doubling last year’s ¥1.179 trillion result.

SoftBank confirmed it sold its entire Nvidia stake (32.1 million shares) in October for $5.83 billion, though the sale was not reflected in its Q2 earnings and the company did not specify a reason for the divestment.

China Reportedly Plans Rare Earth Restrictions on U.S. Military

According to the Wall Street Journal, China is preparing to introduce a “validated end-user” system to restrict rare earth exports to companies tied to the U.S. military, while expediting shipments to civilian customers.

The plan aligns with President Xi Jinping’s recent pledge to President Donald Trump to resume rare earth exports to the U.S., though the new controls could make sourcing these materials more difficult for American firms serving both defense and civilian clients.

Rare earth elements are essential in electronics and defense manufacturing, and China, the world’s largest producer, continues to leverage its dominance in this sector amid ongoing trade tensions with the United States.

The U.S. dollar edged slightly higher on Tuesday following progress toward ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, while the British pound slipped after soft wage growth data reinforced expectations for a Bank of England rate cut next month.

At 04:10 ET (09:10 GMT), the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.1% to 99.580.

Dollar finds modest support amid government funding progress
The dollar posted small gains after the U.S. Senate passed a bill late Tuesday to restore government funding and bring the prolonged shutdown to a close. The legislation now moves to the House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson said he hopes to pass it as early as Wednesday before sending it to President Donald Trump for approval.

“The government reopening trade has taken the shape of textbook risk-on moves in FX. The most equity-sensitive currencies are following gains across stock markets (AUD and NZD, leading) and the yen is under pressure,” said analysis at ING, in a note.

“On a broad level, the impact on the dollar has so far been neutral, which is in line with the reaction to the beginning of the shutdown in October.”

A resolution to the shutdown would also allow the U.S. government to resume publishing key economic reports, providing fresh insights into the state of the world’s largest economy. Last week, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years, reinforcing expectations for another Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

Sterling falls as U.K. wage growth eases

In Europe, GBP/USD dropped 0.4% to 1.3124 after data showed the U.K. labor market cooled more than expected in the third quarter. Unemployment rose to 5.0% from 4.8%, the highest since February 2021, while wage growth excluding bonuses slowed to 4.6% in the three months to September from 4.7% previously.

“These aren’t screamingly dovish figures, but they do endorse to some extent the ongoing dovish repricing of Bank of England rate expectations,” said ING. “Both inflation and jobs data are starting to point down, and we think the Autumn Budget’s tax hikes will provide the final argument for a cut in December.”

The euro was little changed, with EUR/USD steady at 1.1556, ahead of the ZEW economic sentiment release later in the day.

“We continue to look at 1.150 as a floor and see room for stabilisation close to 1.160 based on our short-term valuation indicators, but the probability of a major revamp in depressed EUR/USD volatility remains low this week,” said ING.

Yen at nine-month low amid risk-on sentiment

In Asia, USD/JPY traded 0.1% higher at 154.30, with the yen hovering near a nine-month low as risk appetite improved on optimism over the U.S. funding deal. The currency also softened after Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urged policymakers to proceed cautiously with future interest rate increases.

Elsewhere, USD/CNY edged up to 7.1207, with the yuan remaining under pressure amid persistent worries about China’s slowing economy. Slightly better-than-expected October inflation data did little to bolster sentiment.

The Australian dollar also weakened, with AUD/USD slipping 0.2% to 0.6524, giving back some of its recent gains following the U.S. Senate’s breakthrough vote on Sunday.

European equities advanced on Tuesday, extending the week’s upbeat momentum as investors grew confident that the longest U.S. government shutdown on record was nearing its end.

By 08:10 GMT, Germany’s DAX rose 0.3%, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.6%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 climbed 1%. The positive session followed Monday’s broad rally, when all three indices posted gains of more than 1% on renewed optimism about a U.S. funding deal.

U.S. Senate Approves Funding Bill

Late Monday, the U.S. Senate passed a bipartisan bill to fund the federal government through January, ending the historic shutdown. The bill passed 60–40 with support from nearly all Republicans and several Democrats. It will now move to the House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson indicated he aims to pass it by Wednesday before sending it to President Donald Trump for approval.

The anticipated reopening of the U.S. government has boosted investor sentiment globally. The shutdown had caused nationwide disruptions, particularly in sectors like air travel, and had begun to weigh on confidence in the U.S. economy — the key engine of global growth.

U.K. Labour Data Supports Rate-Cut Expectations

In the UK, new labour market data released Tuesday showed that unemployment rose while wage growth softened, adding weight to expectations of a potential Bank of England interest rate cut next month.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the unemployment rate increased to 5.0% in the three months to September, up from 4.8% in the previous period. Wage growth excluding bonuses eased slightly to 4.6% from 4.7%.

The central bank, which held rates steady at 4% last week, has signaled growing openness to policy easing if domestic inflation pressures continue to subside.

Corporate Highlights: Vodafone, Munich Re, SoftBank

In corporate news, Vodafone Group (LSE:VOD) raised its full-year outlook after reporting higher first-half revenue and earnings, driven by strong performance in the UK, Türkiye, and Africa, alongside the completion of its merger with Three UK.

German reinsurer Munich Re (TG:A289EQ) reported a third-quarter profit of €2 billion, boosted by lower major-loss costs in its property-casualty reinsurance segment. The result brought its nine-month profit to €5.2 billion, underscoring strong profitability in a stable reinsurance market.

Meanwhile, SoftBank (USOTC:SFTBF) delivered a stronger-than-expected fiscal second-quarter profit, benefiting from sizable gains tied to its artificial intelligence investments. The results highlight the Japanese tech giant’s ongoing recovery following prior years of volatility in its Vision Fund portfolio.

Oil Prices Edge Lower

Crude prices slipped on Tuesday, reversing modest gains from the prior session amid renewed concerns about a potential supply glut.

Brent crude futures fell 0.4% to $63.83 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined 0.5% to $59.86. Both benchmarks had advanced slightly on Monday as optimism grew over the U.S. shutdown resolution, though traders remain cautious about rising output.

Earlier this month, OPEC+ agreed to increase December production targets by 137,000 barrels per day, maintaining the pace set for October and November, while planning a pause in output hikes during the first quarter of next year.

Overall, optimism about the U.S. funding deal and stabilizing European data helped lift market sentiment, though inflation pressures and oil market uncertainty continue to temper risk appetite.

Vodafone Group Plc (LSE:VOD) raised its full-year guidance on Tuesday following a stronger-than-expected first-half performance for fiscal 2026, driven by growth in the UK, Türkiye, and Africa, along with the successful completion of its merger with Three UK.

Total revenue rose 7.3% year-on-year to €19.6 billion for the six months ended September 30, 2025, compared with €18.3 billion a year earlier. Service revenue increased 8.1% to €16.3 billion on a reported basis (up 5.7% organically), while adjusted EBITDAaL climbed 5.9% to €5.7 billion. Operating profit fell 9.2% to €2.2 billion, reflecting higher depreciation and amortization following the consolidation of Three UK.

Chief Executive Margherita Della Valle said: “Based on our stronger performance, we are now expecting to deliver at the upper end of our guidance range for both profit and cash flow, and as our anticipated multi-year growth trajectory is now under way.”

Vodafone now expects adjusted EBITDAaL between €13.3 billion and €13.6 billion and adjusted free cash flow between €2.4 billion and €2.6 billion for the full year. The company also introduced a new dividend policy, planning to raise its FY26 dividend per share by 2.5%, with an interim dividend of 2.25 eurocents (ex-dividend November 20, payable February 7, 2026).

Regional performance was led by robust growth in multiple markets:

• Germany, accounting for one-third of group service revenue, returned to growth in Q2 with a 0.5% rise in service revenue.
• UK service revenue increased 1.2% organically, while total revenue surged 27.9% to €4.4 billion following the merger with Three UK.
• Africa delivered 13.5% organic service revenue growth in Q2, supported by strong data and mobile financial service demand.
• Türkiye posted standout growth, with service revenue up 55.6% organically and total revenue up 15.1% to €1.6 billion.

By segment, adjusted EBITDAaL rose 11% to €1.3 billion in Africa (margin 34.1%), 58% in Türkiye to €485 million, and 25% in the UK to €884 million. In contrast, Germany’s EBITDAaL declined 4.3% to €2.2 billion due to lower TV revenue and prior-year investments.

Cash flow from operating activities fell 9.8% to €5.1 billion, while adjusted free cash flow showed an outflow of €583 million, improving from the prior year. Net debt increased to €25.9 billion from €22.4 billion at March 31, reflecting merger-related costs, €1 billion in share buybacks, and €0.6 billion in dividends.

Since May 2023, Vodafone has executed €3 billion in share buybacks and launched a €500 million tranche concurrent with its results. Strategic progress also included the acquisition of Telekom Romania Mobile Communications S.A. for €30 million and an agreement to acquire German cloud and cybersecurity firm Skaylink GmbH for €175 million.

Commenting on the company’s performance, Della Valle added: “Following the progress of our transformation, Vodafone has built broad-based momentum. Whilst we have more to do, we delivered good strategic progress in the half year.”

More about Vodafone Group Plc

Vodafone Group Plc is a global telecommunications company headquartered in the UK, operating mobile and fixed networks across Europe and Africa. The company provides mobile, broadband, and digital financial services to over 300 million customers worldwide. Listed on the London Stock Exchange and part of the FTSE 100, Vodafone continues to focus on operational simplification, 5G expansion, and digital transformation to drive long-term shareholder value.

Ashmore Group plc (LSE:ASHM) shares fell around 3% on Monday after Deutsche Bank downgraded the emerging markets asset manager to Sell from Hold, citing concerns over future net inflows and elevated valuation levels.

Deutsche Bank analysts expressed doubts about consensus expectations for a sustained recovery in net inflows, given the current market environment and outlook for emerging markets. The bank now projects net outflows of $0.5 billion for fiscal year 2026 — equivalent to 1% of opening assets under management (AuM) — compared with consensus forecasts of $0.8 billion in net inflows (2%). The divergence widens for fiscal 2027, where Deutsche Bank anticipates continued outflows of $0.5 billion, while consensus estimates assume $3.0 billion in inflows (6%).

Valuation concerns were another key factor behind the downgrade. Analysts noted that Ashmore trades at a price-to-management fee earnings ratio of 21x for FY2027 based on Deutsche Bank’s estimates (or 20x on a headline P/E basis), versus sector peers trading around 10–12x. Even under the most optimistic consensus scenario — assuming $4.8 billion in net inflows (9% of opening AuM) — the stock would still trade at 18x price-to-management fee earnings or 16x headline P/E, levels viewed as unjustifiably high relative to the broader asset management sector.

Deutsche Bank concluded that the shares currently trade at a “material and unjustified premium” to traditional asset management peers, reflecting limited upside potential in the near term.

More about Ashmore Group plc

Ashmore Group plc is a London-based emerging markets-focused investment manager, offering strategies across fixed income, equities, alternatives, and multi-asset classes. Listed on the London Stock Exchange and a member of the FTSE 250, Ashmore manages global portfolios emphasizing emerging market debt and equities, serving institutional and retail clients worldwide.

Informa plc (LSE:INF) shares gained about 2% on Tuesday after the company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, following a robust trading update covering the first ten months of the year. The British events and academic publishing group reported 6.6% like-for-like (LFL) revenue growth, or 7.6% when including its stake in TechTarget, reflecting strong operational momentum across all divisions.

The company’s B2B Events division, which contributes roughly two-thirds of total revenue, saw growth accelerate to 8.7%, exceeding market expectations. Meanwhile, its Academic Publishing arm, Taylor & Francis, delivered a solid 3% increase over the same period. TechTarget — in which Informa holds a 57% stake — returned to positive growth in the third quarter after a weak first half and reiterated its guidance for flat full-year revenues. Analysts noted that this suggests a stronger fourth quarter, following a 2.7% decline in the first ten months.

Informa maintained its full-year guidance for underlying revenue growth above 6% and adjusted EPS expansion of at least 10%, alongside a 2025 revenue target of around £4 billion. Analysts at Kepler Cheuvreux, led by Conor O’Shea, described the results as “a very reassuring trading update” that could prompt upgrades to 2025 forecasts and further share price appreciation. O’Shea also highlighted that, after a strong year-to-date share performance driven by robust organic growth and resilience against AI-related disruption in its core B2B business, valuation multiples of about 17x 2025 earnings appear fair but fully priced.

More about Informa plc

Informa plc is a UK-based international events, publishing, and business intelligence group, operating through divisions including Informa Markets, Informa Connect, and Taylor & Francis. The company delivers data-driven insights, specialist content, and large-scale B2B events across global industries. Listed on the London Stock Exchange and a constituent of the FTSE 100, Informa continues to capitalize on the recovery of the global events market while strengthening its position in academic and digital information services.

Blue Star Capital (LSE:BLU) announced that its portfolio company SatoshiPay has achieved a major milestone with its Vortex fiat-to-crypto infrastructure platform, which has now onboarded its first major API partners and surpassed $2 million in transaction volumes. The platform’s growth marks a significant step in expanding SatoshiPay’s market presence by improving liquidity access and enhancing settlement efficiency across digital asset ecosystems.

The expansion is particularly impactful in Latin America, where SatoshiPay has partnered with IaCrypto, a leading digital asset payment processor based in Brazil. This collaboration aims to streamline fiat-to-crypto conversions and strengthen cross-border payment solutions in one of the world’s fastest-growing crypto markets.

More about Blue Star Capital plc

Blue Star Capital plc is a UK-based investment company specializing in emerging technology sectors, including blockchain, esports, and digital payments. Its portfolio includes SatoshiPay Ltd, known for pioneering blockchain-based payment infrastructure; Dynasty Media & Gaming, a full-stack gaming ecosystem; and Paidia, an inclusive gaming platform designed to empower female gamers. Through these investments, Blue Star seeks to capitalize on transformative digital trends shaping the future of finance and entertainment.

Team Internet Group plc (LSE:TIG) has begun a strategic review aimed at enhancing shareholder value through potential divestments or strategic partnerships across its portfolio of market-leading digital platforms. The initiative comes as the company adapts to structural shifts in the digital advertising landscape, including policy changes introduced by Google. In response, Team Internet is accelerating the growth of its direct-to-advertiser and commerce media operations to strengthen its competitive position.

The review seeks to highlight the distinct value of each business segment, particularly the Domain, Identity & Software (DIS) division, which continues to deliver strong financial results and could command a valuation exceeding the group’s current market capitalization. Management expects a return to double-digit earnings growth from 2026, driven by sustained momentum in DIS, a recovery in the Comparison segment, and the scaling of RSOC and commerce media initiatives within the Search division.

Despite this strategic progress, Team Internet faces ongoing financial headwinds, including declining revenues and elevated leverage. Technical indicators point to bearish momentum, with the stock trading below key moving averages and in oversold territory. Profitability remains under pressure, and while the company offers a moderate dividend yield, valuation challenges persist.

More about Team Internet Group

Team Internet Group plc is a global internet solutions provider specializing in domain name management, identity services, and digital advertising technologies. The company operates through three key segments: Domain, Identity & Software (DIS), Comparison, and Search. Team Internet enables businesses to connect with consumers and advertisers through privacy-focused, AI-driven digital ecosystems, helping brands and publishers optimize online engagement and monetization across multiple channels.